Envisioning the Impact of Mass Migration, Geopolitical Conflict, Climate Change, and Trust on Foodborne Illness Risk Among Refugees in Canada in 2045

Abstract

Background: Refugees in Canada have faced significant food safety challenges, including limited familiarity with local food systems, communication barriers due to language and cultural differences, and restricted access to resources. These challenges are anticipated to intensify by 2045 due to mass migration, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change, which will likely disrupt food supply chains, and undermine trust in food safety systems. This research aimed to explore how these four drivers may shape foodborne illness risk behaviors and potential mitigation strategies for refugees in a future Canadian context. Methods: In this thesis I used a future-oriented scenario-based approach to develop two plausible scenarios for Canada in 2045 using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and geopolitical disruption-based scenarios created by the Pardee Center for International Futures, reflecting different trajectories of climate change, migration, conflict, and social trust. The ‘Worst Case’ scenario portrayed a plausible 2045 future characterized by intensified climate impacts, heightened geopolitical instability, increased migration pressures, and declining social trust, resulting in compounding and systemic challenges. In contrast, the ‘Typical Case’ scenario described a plausible future that more closely resembled current social, political, and environmental conditions, with challenges unfolding in ways consistent with existing trends and institutional capacities. I conducted 16 individual audio-recorded interviews with food safety and refugee resettlement experts in which participants explored potential foodborne illness risks and mitigation strategies for refugee populations under these scenarios. I analyzed the data thematically using inductive and deductive coding, informed by Ecosocial Theory, Critical Theory, the World Health Organization’s “5 keys for Safer Food”, and Fight BAC!’s “Four Core Practices of Food Safety” to identify key themes related to foodborne illness risks and mitigation strategies. I interpreted the findings through these frameworks to explore how these interviewees perceive foodborne illness risks among refugees, integrating both verbal and non-verbal data for a comprehensive understanding. Results: Findings revealed that foodborne illness risk for refugees in Ontario in 2045 may not be experienced primarily as an issue of individual food handling behavior, but rather as the outcome of interacting structural, environmental, and social systems. Participants described food safety as a multi-scalar phenomenon shaped by global governance dynamics, climate change, infrastructure stability, and the material conditions of resettlement, including housing, food access, and resource constraints. Communication barriers, culturally embedded food practices, and varying levels of institutional trust may further influence how food safety knowledge will be interpreted and applied in everyday contexts. While established food safety frameworks were recognized as important, their implementation may be constrained by these broader systemic conditions. Conclusion: Foodborne illness risks for refugees in Canada in 2045 will likely not be driven solely by individual behaviors but emerge from dynamic interactions across environmental, infrastructural, social, and institutional systems. This study reframes food safety in 2045 as an emergent property of complex socio-ecological systems, shaped by climate change, migration processes, infrastructure stability, settlement conditions, communication, cultural practices, and trust. The findings highlight that the feasibility of safe food practices will be structurally constrained, underscoring the limitations of individual-level interventions alone. Addressing these risks will require integrated, multi-level public health approaches that strengthen system resilience, support culturally responsive strategies, and build institutional trust. Such approaches are essential for promoting equitable food safety outcomes and enhancing the resilience of food systems in an increasingly uncertain global context.