Understanding Uncertainty in Daily Life: Appraisals and Metacognitive Strategies

Abstract

Uncertainty is an inevitable part of our lives, yet little is known about how people navigate the uncertainty they encounter in their lives. In my thesis, I examine how uncertainty is perceived, which situations are perceived as uncertain, and how people react to uncertainty in daily life, specifically whether they engage in perspectival metacognition. To address these questions, I used data from a year-long longitudinal study asking participants (N = 499) to report on the most significant event of their day. Using natural language processing, I then classified these open-ended text responses as uncertain and not uncertain, and examined how participants’ construal, emotional profile, and reasoning differ for uncertain compared to not uncertain events. Uncertain events were perceived as relatively more negative, challenging, in others’ control, and less predictable. Uncertain events were also associated with greater negative emotion and less positive emotion. Negative event types (i.e., conflict, rejection, annoying, and sad or bad news type of events) were more likely to be classified as uncertain compared to positive or neutral event types. Participants were also relatively more likely to report intellectual humility and a search for compromise in reflections on uncertain events. These results were similar for the trait and state levels. I discuss the implications of this scholarship for research on affect and emotion regulation and on mental health, specifically for those with anxiety disorders.